INDIA’S INTESREST IN THE GREAT GAME OF INDIAN OCEAN POLITICS
Abstract
The Indian Ocean area is one of the world’s busiest commercial and main energy supply routes. However, the region’s energy transportation is subject to several strategic choke spots. India now has a unique geo-strategic position in the Indian Ocean Region. On the other side, India is heavily reliant on the region’s important marine energy supply routes. As a result, India’s inherent priority is to ensure the security of the Indian Ocean Region. For uninterrupted energy supply is critical for national economic progress, India must plan its national marine interests in the Indian Ocean. This article aims to define the vital role of Indian Ocean marine supplies in India’s strategic and energy security, as well as to determine India’s principal focus in the Indian Ocean Region. The article also discusses the Indo-China rivalry in the Indian Ocean and how India is maintaining minimum credible deterrence vis-a-vis China and Pakistan. India is also concerned about the naval bases of its counterpart in the IOR, and for this reason, it has modernized its naval capability with the help of western-backed advanced equipment. India prefers the policy of maintaining economic interest by establishing links with littoral states of IOR.
Keywords
The Indian Ocean, Indo-China tensions, strategic interest, deterrence policy, great game, power contestation, maritime security, China, USA, Quad-Squad, Rim Association, regional stability.
Introduction
The Indian Ocean is the world’s 3rd largest water body and one of the growing sectors of competition among the powerful states of the world. It has become a great source of trade, economic development, conflicts as well as power contestation for the regional and non-regional states. The major powers such as United States, Japan, China, United Kingdom, and India are concerned about the security of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). It remains one of the most industrious trade routes of the world, as 80% of the world’s oil trade is done through IOR. Talking about the power contestation in the region, we can consider India as the region’s hegemon power. There are some states other than India that are rising as a maritime giant in the Indian Ocean Region, one such state is China. India is worried about the rise of Chinese influence in the IOR and tries to counterbalance great designs with China. Both India & China try to maintain influence in the Indian Ocean Region, for this purpose they try to build relations with the Littoral States of the Indian Region. It is believed that the chance of escalation of conflict between the two states is quite low, as any disruption could cause the disturbance & it would destabilize the trade and economic growth of the region.
The emphasis of Indian PM Narendra Modi on the strategic significance of the Indian Ocean has created new maritime concerns for India. The Indian government’s increased emphasis on strengthening its skills and partnerships in the IOR is vital for India’s security and economic progress. The ocean-based ‘blue economy’ is a modern concept that aids in the optimization and balanced utilization of ocean resources for socio-economic development. It is founded on the concept of the “ocean as a resource,” in which the use of local resources is encouraged, allowing for sustainable development and alleviating resource shortage challenges. India’s Ocean Policy, called “SAGAR — Security and Growth for All in the Region,” entails enhancing marine capabilities and protecting the mainland and adjacent islands. It will aid India in developing a secure regional architecture in the IOR. Because of their location in the IOR, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands might present India with an incomparable edge in advancing the “SAGAR” strategy.
Significance of Indian Ocean Region
The Indian Ocean, which is confined by Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, India’s coastal seas, and the Bay of Bengal in Myanmar and Indonesia. It connects the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia to the larger Asian continent to the east and Europe to the west via key marine trade routes. The Indian Ocean Region, which is thought to be rich in energy sources, has a number of the world’s most critical strategic chokepoints, including the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca, through which 32.2 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum are moved every day. Piracy, geopolitical conflicts, political opposition, and accidents all endanger these choke points. Regional and external powers stretch their resources to ward off such threats and achieve a solid footing in this resource-rich region. The islands in the Indian Ocean also play an important role in shaping the IOR’s security architecture. These islands play an important role along sea lines of communication (SLOC) by providing easy access for warships to maintain their presence and patrol and secure SLOCs during peace and conflict. The Indian Ocean serves as a junction for oil and gas transportation from the Middle East. This is also why external powers are attempting to deepen their strongholds in the region, therefore making it a display of their strength and capability.
When discussing geostrategic significance, “security dynamics” in the IOR play an equally important role. According to this, the Persian Gulf in the Arabian Sea also plays a vital part in the Indian security perspective. India’s major goal in this region is to secure the SLOCs in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, which are rife with pirate risks. The Indian Navy maintains warships stationed in the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf to ensure the safety of Indian-flagged boats operating in the region. India along with other nations under Information Fusion Centre-IOR keeps an eye on the movement and warships of enemy states in the Indian Ocean Region. India also develop comprehensive Maritime Domain awareness with other nations of the region and share details of vessels in the region
The Tri-Polar Contestation in the IOR
(India, China, USA)
China and India rely on energy resources transported through the Indian Ocean’s secure sea lines to power-boost their economies. India imports nearly 80% of its energy, primarily from the Middle East. India, China, and the United States perceive the region through its geostrategic lens, ensuring intense jostling at best and conflict at worst. India has implemented the “Security and Growth for All Regions” (SAGAR) framework, which is a hybrid of its Act East and Think West strategies. China has the Maritime Silk Road, which is a component of the Belt and Road Initiative. The interest of each state varies or is based on historical factors, economic interest, and geography of the state.
A high-level articulation of the Indian vision, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi proposed “Security and Growth for All in the Region,” or SAGAR, in 2015. India’s External Affairs Minister expressly described the region in 2017 as ranging from the Gulf of Aden in the west, via Chabahar Port in southwest Iran, and to Burma and Thailand in the east. Notably, India does not perceive Pakistan as a partner in its regional cooperation policy, but rather as an adversary. India also tries to minimize its conflicts with China to penetrate more in the Indian Ocean region, and push back all the historical conflicts with China for more regional dominance. As for India, the Indian ocean strategy concentration began back in the 1990s when India started to develop its naval strategy. A new “look east and Act west policy” was introduced to deal with the economic and commercial activities with the Middle East, Southeast as well as South Asian states, and also persuaded the ties with its Western ally i.e. the United States. In this way, India was able to materialize the continental approach and was able to construct the economy in the region.
The US factor is also there in the Indian Ocean Region, which cannot be ignored, as the US is a reliable strategic partner for India. India purchased combat fighters from the US to modernize its naval capability. The two states continue to build relations in the origin of the Indian Ocean based on security and commercial benefits. One of the manifestations for India in IOR is to have an economic presence and as for the United States, it sees IOR through the lens of the military. The concerns regarding energy, counter-terrorism, and other security issues have completely molded the policy in this sector. Military concerns are increasingly dominating the Indo-Pacific Strategy. The United States looks to be relying more on military tools. To that end, the United States has established military facilities in various states to exert influence on the global security paradigm of the Indian Ocean Region. The expanding US-India relationship to the larger Asia-Pacific region, reflecting the rising economic, commercial, and diplomatic ties between Indian Ocean littoral nations and those in Southeast and East Asia.
The US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This agreement was meant to counter Chinese influence over the littoral states and also to provide trade, commercial and economic balance to Asia-Pacific states. But the agreement couldn’t reach South Asia and Indian Ocean states and as a result, the entire Indo-Pacific strategy was confined to only the military Strategy of the United States.
India’s counterpart China has a wider vision for Indian Ocean Region. China’s vision is based on spreading its trade routes and for this reason, China materialized its Belt and Road Initiative. The Silk Road Economic belt of china spreads from Western China to the Middle East and Africa. China’s main aim is to have great dominance over Eurasia. The long-standing vision of China to continue its geostrategic relations has left footprints of BRI in almost every state of South Asia. Through BRI China would be able to hold a strategic foothold in the region by maintaining influence over the ports in the Indian Ocean Region. Through the BRI and Maritime initiatives, China has achieved its goal to maintain the influence of power in IOR. China has to counter-hegemony of India by maintaining relations with neighboring states. To counter India in the region, China has developed strategic ties with states like Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka to contain the influence of India. It is also assessed that China has maintained more diplomatic and economic relations rather than militarily oriented relations with states of IOR.
India, in particular, may be able to use the diverging viewpoints to position itself between the US and China to maximize strategic autonomy. India and China’s reliance on non-military foreign policy instruments, in contrast to America’s use of armed forces to achieve foreign policy objectives, will decide the future of the three contesting nations in the great game of the Indian Ocean Region Furthermore, the modifications in US strategy including increased non-military expenditure and diplomatic involvement, as well as a greater emphasis on collaborative economic connections in the area, can help eliminate tensions in the region.
India and China-the triggered tensions in IOR
Both nations have launched projects to improve infrastructure and other linkages in the region. Although competition between China and India is not always obvious, both countries are striving to improve connections with smaller regional governments to safeguard their security and economic goals. China’s relationships with regional governments have become stronger, with Chinese finance pouring into development projects in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. China has also made efforts to upgrade its military, notably its naval deployment capabilities, to secure its foreign interests such as troops, property, and investments. Although China denies hegemonic ambitions, it defines security in the IOR as a significant priority for Chinese core interests. A white paper outlining China’s military policy in 2015 said that the People’s Liberation Army Navy will focus on both offshore water defense and open seas protection. Chinese action implies that it wishes to build a permanent maritime presence in the region. It currently has a temporary naval presence in the Indian Ocean as a result of its anti-piracy operations. China is taking initiatives what is called by scholars as Strings of Pearls to establish port facilities in Indian ocean states. Through naval development, China is countering the Indian and US threat in the IOR. The naval bases in littoral states are key to securitize Chinese interest and hegemony in the Indian Ocean.
India regards itself as the region’s natural leading power. PM Modi has stepped up efforts to build diplomatic, economic, and security relationships with IOR maritime states in order to enhance India’s economy, cement its role as a source of regional prosperity and reduce China’s rising attraction. For India’s part, it is also establishing naval bases in parts of Indian Ocean states to reduce Chinese dominance of the region. Both India and China are playing their role in establishing military bases to secure economic as well as a security interests. the maritime contestation between India and China should be strictly observed, as any major confrontation between these regional powers can cause large-scale destruction in the Region.
On one hand where China is increasing its counter-piracy activities in the IOR by advancing the naval power. India is also rebalancing its naval power by spending billions on its maritime capability. The up-gradation of vessels, anti-submarines, modernized equipment and fleets, and the construction of military bases- all are part of India’s naval capacity of countering the regional threat. India is also part of Quadrilateral Security Dialog, also known as Quad Squad which consists of Japan, Australia, India & United States-these four states collaborate to ensure sustain an open free trade and navigation in the Indo-Pacific region. India along with Quad Squad members conducts several naval exercises to keep the morale of troops high and to ensure its counterparts that India is capable of maintaining its security objectives in the Indian Ocean Region. This showcase of the Indian Security objective can help India in opposing threats from the regional rival i.e. China.
Indo-China Rivalry: The New Implications
1. This competition is no longer confined to the Sino-India border in the Himalayan region, however, hostilities within this region have risen as a result of the Doklam standoff. China-India rivalry is growing into the Indian Ocean area, making it more maritime-focused than in the past. This has the potential to promote additional development of naval forces on both sides, which might have repercussions for US Navy acquisition and regional posture.
2. The geographic expansion of strategic competition between China and India is developing strategic links between East Asia, South Asia, and the Indian Ocean, further tying the Indo-Pacific area together.
3. Increased rivalry for energy and other resources across the IOR may influence worldwide markets.
4. Increasing rivalry from China may provide motivation for India to strengthen ties with the US and other Indo-Pacific countries such as Australia, Japan, and other states
5. The competition may provide more opportunity for Indian Ocean littoral nations to push China and India against one another in order to secure foreign aid, military support, greater commerce and investment, and other benefits.
6. The rise of India’s and China’s naval capabilities and presence, as well as growing involvement with regional governments, may reduce the Unit’s strategic stance of United States in the Indian Ocean Region
The role of India in the Indian Ocean Rim Association
Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) — formerly known as the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation, was founded in 1997 as a result of the combined efforts of South Africa, India, Australia, and Mauritius. It is the only international meeting that brings together Indian Ocean littoral governments. It now represents a confederation of 22 nations along with dialog partners including China, the US, and Germany.
India held the responsibility of restoring the old concept of Indian Ocean Regionalism. An increase in India’s seaborne commerce, along with China’s entry into the littoral nations, sparked India’s retaliation against rival China.
There are three important aspects to consider:
1.The awareness of maritime security and the necessity to invest in navy and coastal defense modernization
2.The increased zeal with which major naval countries such as the united states, japan, and Australia are collaborating with India
3.A significant divergence from typical discourse concerning the Indian ocean
Maritime security has received a lot of attention in India. Consequently, India is continually seeking to increase collaboration with the littoral states for the exchange of real-time intelligence. It has also established National Command, Control, and Communication Intelligence (NC3I), which is aimed at increasing national marine domain awareness. The development of Chinese ports (Gwadar, Hambantota, and Djibouti) in the Indian Ocean Region, along with China’s massive approach to the freedom of passage in the South and East China Seas, has alarmed India. India’s growth is dependent on an uninterrupted supply of oil and gas. 90 percent of India’s commerce by volume and 68 percent by value is conducted through the Indian Ocean. These issues are pushing India to rethink its regional policy. Close military cooperation is taking place in the region, with countries such as the United States, Japan, and Australia participating. Joint Naval Exercise (Malabar) has even become normal. Unlike in the past, when the major goal was to keep outside interference at distance, the region is experiencing a continuous embrace of foreign forces.
The Deterrence policy of India in IOR
Because of its location and informal networks around the Indian Ocean, India has distinct advantages in the region. A denial strategy would take India’s limits into account and focus on establishing political and military barriers against Chinese pressure in the area. India might also improve its ability to deny access to the sea. Improving its anti-submarine warfare capabilities and a stockpile of long-range precision missiles, for example, might assist to deter Chinese direct military action. This might be accomplished for a fraction of the expense of constructing a limited number of massive capital vessels. A denial approach in the Indian Ocean will not solve Ladakh’s existing border conflict. However, it would provide a realistic pathway for increasing political and military supremacy in the area. It would give the strategic influence required to deter or counteract future acts of coercion in the Indian Ocean.
Given the perceived security threats in the Indian Ocean region, Indian navy planners and strategists believe that nuclear submarines will provide the most dependable deterrence. Thus, India’s development of a sea-based nuclear force is a natural step in its quest for guaranteed retaliation capability. India’s ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) fleet will not only boost India’s sea-based leg of its triad’s operational capabilities but would also allow New Delhi to maintain the balance of power in the IOR. To retain a credible minimum deterrence vis-à-vis China and Pakistan, and to assure the survival of its arsenal against a preemptive first strike, India must prioritize the development of SSBMs.
India’s ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) fleet would not only improve the operational capabilities of India’s sea-based capacity but will also assist India to preserve the balance of power in the Indian Ocean region. India must prioritize the development of SSBMs to maintain a credible minimum deterrent vis-à-vis China and Pakistan, as well as to ensure the preservation of its arsenal against a preemptive first strike. Deterrence was re-prioritized and redefined as India’s main objective in its 2015 maritime security strategy document, with warfighting as the second. As a result, India’s SSBN force should be viewed as a crucial facilitator of the country’s policy of no-first-use of attack.
Challenges for India
India can dominate the Indian Ocean area physically since it is the largest country in the region and controls the air and maritime routes of communication. Although India has continuously extended its engagement with the area, it confronts many obstacles to future progress. It does not have the resources to compete with China in trade and commercial ventures. Its naval and air modernization efforts are hampered by inefficiency, corruption, and competing demands. It still faces significant domestic economic issues as well as conflicting social goals.
China exploits geographical fissures, strengthens its partnership with Pakistan, and uses its resources to acquire political clout. The rise of Chinese strength and influence will reinforce India’s historical propensity toward non-alignment, despite serious worries about China’s intentions, while the United States, given the resource imbalance between military and non-military instruments, will be more inclined to align its policy runs the risk of becoming overly militarized. India and China’s ideas have lately developed, allowing the two countries to better account for current geopolitical concerns.
Future Security Prospects for India in IOR
1. To preserve its key security interests in the Indian Ocean, India must enhance and expand its security cooperation with regional allies such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Seychelles, and Mauritius, as well as the United States, Japan, and Australia.
2. India must build both hard and soft power resources to safeguard its maritime security and to deal with any crisis that may come from a potential Sino-US confrontation in the South China Sea. Furthermore, India must strengthen its strategic position in international forums and organizations. As for India, the IOR serves as a “nerve center” for its Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs).
3. The Quad-Squad relationship between India, Japan, the US, and Australia should not be only focused on alienating China. Rather, China must participate as a cooperative participant in the process of resolving mutual disagreements in the spirit of defending the global commons.
4. India will need to develop a multi-pronged strategy for maintaining an active and maneuverable presence in the IOR by integrating its army, air force, and navy in fuller cooperation and coordination with the central and state governments to meet the challenges posed by China to its maritime interests in the Indian Ocean Region
5. The focus of India should be on SLOC security and resource management, as an effective counterweight to China’s much-hyped strategic blockade of India via the “string of pearls” concept, India will be compelled to undertake defense infrastructure projects in the Indian Ocean.
Analysis
India’s naval diplomacy is its policy for engaging the Indian Ocean’s littoral states, as well as the modernization and growth of its naval assets. To strengthen its footprint in the IOR, India must focus on a few critical areas. The state should guarantee that it can harness the Indian ocean and its coastline to create a blue economy; and work with a united spirit of progress and security for all states in the region. India should also form effective collaborations with foreign forces existing in the area, attain speed and efficiency in its Marine Capability Perspective Plan, and execute strong maritime diplomatic connections with nations in the area. India’s marine security concerns in the Indian Ocean require the development of a long-term maritime policy in close strategic collaboration with major countries such as the US, Japan, and Australia, as well as its maritime neighbors. The numerous security threats from a variety of sources, including antagonistic neighbors and non-state actors like pirates, marine terrorists, and armed robberies. To address problems at the global and regional levels, India must take a more systematic and integrated approach.
New world powers like China seek to stretch their maritime capabilities in the Indian Ocean. For example, China has been modernizing its fleet and increasing its naval force in the Indian Ocean to establish its dominance over the IOR states, which causes anxiety for countries such as India, the United States, and Japan. Due to conflicting energy and security interests in the Indian Ocean region, India and China will remain strategic adversaries. By extension, India would need to strengthen its marine infrastructure and naval capabilities. Because India is confronted with many maritime dangers and difficulties on a large scale and intensity, the Act East Policy will not be sufficient to provide the advantages. It cannot safeguard its maritime borders or provide energy security without the cooperation and intelligence sharing of regional allies. Cooperative security mechanisms cannot be formed until regional and extra-regional states’ perspectives of common regional security interests coincide.
In the Indian Ocean Region, Sino-Indian cooperation is built on coexistence and rivalry. The dynamics of the relationship are complex, as Chinese interests are seen as encircling Indian dominance in the region. One of the reasons India maintains connections with the United States and other countries is because of the rising Chinese naval strategies in the Indian Ocean. India and the United States work together to reduce China’s footprint in the Indian Ocean. India considers Chinese naval influence in the region to be a big danger. There is one area where India has an advantage over China: its geography and closeness to the Indian Ocean. China’s naval capabilities in the region are vulnerable because it must rely on minor chokepoints to maintain its sphere of influence in the region. This vulnerability of China is significant because it provides Sino-Indian ties a new dimension. The author makes the point that a blockade by either India or China would result in a maritime defeat for both governments in the region. India, on the other hand, is attempting to develop a negotiating chip, which complicates the Sino-Indian relationship in the IOR.